Weekend Talking Points - 'Pausitive'

Despite rising inventory levels, existing home sales remain stuck at a 4 million unit annual pace. Homes are lingering on the market longer, and buyers are regaining some of the negotiating power that they lost during the pandemic. Meanwhile, the market is certain that the Fed will stay on pause next week.

The Federal Reserve will meet next week. On July 30, the Federal Open Markets Committee will meet to discuss the US economy and set interest rate policy. The market overwhelmingly expects that the Fed will keep the Federal Funds Rate target range steady at 4.25%-4.50%. In other words, no rate cut. [Sources: Federal Reserve & CME]

TP: After starting to cut rates in late 2024, the Fed has been on “pause” for all of 2025. Why? First, because inflation (“core” PCE) has failed to make much progress this year. In January 2025, “core” PCE was rising at +2.7% year-over-year. And in June 2025? Also +2.7% YoY. The Fed’s target is +2.0%. Second, because the labor market has remained tight, with the latest unemployment rate reading at 4.1%.

Existing home sales remain stuck. In June 2025, existing home sales fell 2.7% month-over-month (flat YoY) to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized pace of 3.93 million units. We’re still selling homes at a pace comparable to 2008 or 1995. The median sales price rose 2.7% MoM (+2.0% YoY) to $435,300. Total inventory was flat at 1.53 million units. At the current pace of sales, it would take 4.7 months to sell all the inventory — and that’s the highest figure in a long time. [Source: NAR]

TP: You’ve heard this from me before, but it’s worth repeating — we should be selling homes at a 5.0–5.5 million unit pace. But mortgage rates near 7% are keeping buyers on the sidelines. With inventory levels continuing to rise, that means that listings are sitting on the market longer, and that’s giving buyers more negotiating power — particularly in markets where inventory levels are already well above pre-pandemic levels.

Less competition for homes. In June, the Realtors Confidence Index continued to evidence a cooling market. Only 21% of the homes sold in June 2025 were transacted above the original list price (that figure was 29% in June 2024). And the average number of offers per home sold was 2.4 in June 2025 (vs. 2.9 in June 2024). [Source: NAR]

NAR lowers their outlook. The NAR is now looking for just 3% YoY growth in existing home sales in 2025, and 1% YoY price growth. But they expect a snapback in 2026 driven by lower mortgage rates (6% for a 30-yr mortgage), with existing home sales jumping 14% YoY, and prices rising 4% YoY. [Source: NAR]

Realtors Confidence Index for June 2025

Every month, the NAR surveys Realtors and asks them for a combination of hard and soft data. The results of this Realtors Confidence Index (“RCI”) are released on the same day as the existing home sales figure.

Note: It’s normal for competition levels to begin fading in June (as fall approaches), so it’s important to compare June 2025 to June 2024.

Next Three Months Outlook. In June 2025, just 17% of respondents said that they expected an increase in buyer activity in the next three months. In May 2025, that figure was 18%, and in June 2024 it was 13%. In terms of seller activity, 23% of respondents in June 2025 saw that increasing over the next three months, compared to 17% in June 2024.

TP: This series has very clear seasonality. As we get closer to fall and winter, Realtors expect buyer activity to decline. That said, I find it interesting that the outlook for seller activity continues to outpace buyer activity. That’s another sign of buyers regaining negotiating power.

Number of Offers Received per Sale. In June 2025, there was an average of 2.4 offers for every property sold, down from 2.5 in May 2025. But in June 2024, that figure was 2.9, and in June 2023, it was 3.3. Competition for individual properties has eased significantly as inventory has increased (and mortgage rates have risen).

% of Properties Selling Above List Price. In June 2025, 21% of homes sold above their list price, well below the 28% seen in May 2025 and the 29% experienced in June 2024. In June 2022, over 50% of homes sold above their list price! You may have noticed that the graph below looks very similar to the one above. Makes sense, right? When the frequency of competitive biddings is rising, more homes will transact above their list price.

Days on Market. The homes that sold in June 2025 spent a median of 27 days on the market, the same as in May 2025. But that’s one week longer than the 22 days on market seen in June 2024. Remember: a lower DOM implies a faster pace of sales; a higher DOM means that homes are lingering on the market longer, which means that inventory is piling up. In June 2023, DOM was just 18. In June 2022, DOM was 14 — just two weeks!

TP: DOM tends to bottom in May-June (the spring/summer selling season) and peak in Jan-Feb (slower sales in winter). Note the rising peaks and rising troughs in the graph below.

First-timer Buyers. Historically (2008–2018), first-time buyers typically represented ~32% of the homes purchased in a given month. During the pandemic, this got as low as 26% as home prices (and later mortgage rates) moved sharply higher. In June 2025, 30% of homes sold were bought by first-timers, the same as in May 2025. In June 2024, the figure was 29%. Despite high home prices and mortgage rates, first-timers are still finding a way.

All-cash Deals. When mortgage rates are high, cashed-up buyers (typically older folks and property investment companies) have a huge advantage. In contrast, first-timers are rarely in the position to buy a home without a mortgage. In June 2025, 29% of all homes sold were bought all-cash. This was up from 27% in May 2025, and slightly above the 28% seen in June 2024.

TP: Think about that for a minute: nearly one-third of ALL the homes sold across the US in June were purchased without a mortgage. Incredible!

Bond and Mortgage Market

Average 30-year mortgage rates were largely unchanged this week, which was actually surprising considering the huge upward moves in the stock market AND the continued rise in global bond yields (notably Japan).

Here’s what the Fed Funds Rate futures market is currently pricing in for rate cuts. Note that the current Fed Funds Rate policy range is 4.25–4.50%.

• July 30 FOMC Meeting: 97% probability that the policy rate will remain at 4.25–4.50% (up from last week). So no rate cut expected.
• September 17 FOMC Meeting: 61% probability that rates will be 25 bps below current (up from 59%). This implies a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting. 37% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%.
• October 29 FOMC Meeting: 31% probability that rates will be 50 bps below current (down from 35% last week). 19% probability that rates will remain at 4.25–4.50%.

They Said It

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record high home price. Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market. More supply is needed to increase the share of first-time homebuyers in the coming years even though some markets appear to have a temporary oversupply at the moment.” — Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist

“The starter home has effectively aged out. What used to be a newbuild on the edge of town is now a decades-old listing — often smaller, still pricey, and receiving fierce competition. First-time buyers are priced out by high mortgage rates or lack of supply. These market conditions are tilting the scales toward renting, an opportunity that investors are happy to pounce on, which in turn creates even more competition for potential buyers.” — Thom Malone, Cotality Economist

Staging Hacks for Small Homes That Impress Buyers

When selling a small home, every square foot counts. Buyers want to feel like they’re getting
maximum value, and staging can make even the coziest space feel bright, open, and inviting.
The right staging techniques highlight the home’s best features, create the illusion of more
space, and help buyers imagine themselves living there.
If you’re preparing a compact home for the market, these staging hacks will help you wow
potential buyers and stand out in a competitive market.

Why Staging Small Homes Matters
Staging isn’t just about decorating—it’s about creating a lifestyle buyers aspire to. In a small
home, the challenge is showing buyers that the space is functional, versatile, and doesn’t feel
cramped. Well-staged small homes often:
● Appear larger and brighter than they actually are
● Emphasize smart use of space and storage
● Make it easier for buyers to imagine themselves living comfortably
● Increase the perceived value of the property
When done right, staging can lead to faster offers and potentially higher selling prices. Let’s look
at some practical hacks to maximize impact without breaking the bank.

1. Declutter and Depersonalize Aggressively
The first and most crucial step in staging any home—especially a small one—is removing
clutter. Excess belongings make rooms feel tight and overwhelming.
● Pare down furniture. Keep only essential pieces that fit the scale of the room.
● Remove personal items. Family photos, collections, and highly personalized décor can
distract buyers.
● Clear surfaces. Countertops, nightstands, and coffee tables should be mostly empty to
create a sense of openness.
● Organize storage spaces. Buyers will peek inside closets and cabinets. A neat,
organized space implies there’s plenty of room for their belongings.
Think of it as pre-packing for your move while making the home feel more spacious.

2. Maximize Natural Light
Light is one of the most effective ways to make a small home feel bigger. Buyers are naturally
drawn to bright, airy spaces.
● Remove heavy curtains. Swap them for sheer, light-filtering window treatments.
● Clean windows thoroughly. Sparkling windows allow in more sunlight.
● Add mirrors strategically. A large mirror can reflect light and visually double the room’s
size.
● Use consistent, light wall colors. Soft neutrals like white, beige, or pale gray create a
cohesive and open feel throughout the home.
If natural light is limited, supplement with layered lighting—table lamps, floor lamps, and
under-cabinet lighting to brighten every corner.

3. Choose the Right-Scale Furniture
Oversized furniture can make a small room feel even tinier. Instead, select pieces that
complement the space.
● Opt for multi-functional furniture. Think storage ottomans, fold-out desks, or a sleeper
sofa.
● Leave breathing room. Don’t push every piece against the wall—allowing a bit of space
creates the illusion of more room.
● Keep pathways clear. Buyers should easily move through each room without bumping
into furniture.
● Use glass or acrylic pieces. Transparent furniture helps reduce visual clutter and
keeps the room feeling open.
The goal is to show buyers that the home can comfortably accommodate daily living without
feeling cramped.

4. Define Each Space Clearly
In smaller homes, open-concept areas or multi-use rooms can confuse buyers. Staging helps
define how each space can function.
● Create distinct zones. In a studio or open-plan space, use rugs, lighting, or furniture
placement to separate the living, dining, and sleeping areas.
● Show versatility. A small corner can be staged as a cozy reading nook or a
work-from-home station.
● Highlight storage solutions. Built-in shelving, under-bed storage, or closet organizers
demonstrate practical ways to maximize space.
Buyers should walk away knowing exactly how they could use every inch of the home.

5. Keep It Simple but Stylish
Small homes benefit from a minimalist yet welcoming approach. Overdecorating can make the
space feel busy and cramped.
● Use a cohesive color palette. Stick to two or three neutral tones with a few pops of
color for accents.
● Incorporate greenery. A few well-placed plants add life and freshness without
overwhelming the space.
● Choose scaled-down décor. Smaller artwork and accessories prevent visual clutter.
● Avoid bulky rugs. Instead, use area rugs that fit the proportions of the room to help
define spaces.
Think “light, airy, and uncluttered” rather than “overdesigned.”

6. Pay Attention to the Entryway
First impressions matter, and in a small home, the entryway often sets the tone.
● Keep it clear and tidy. Remove unnecessary furniture or bulky storage bins.
● Add a mirror. This makes the area feel larger and reflects light into the space.
● Use a small but stylish console table or wall hooks. Show buyers how even a
compact entry can be functional.
A welcoming, uncluttered entrance helps buyers immediately feel at ease.

7. Highlight Outdoor Living Spaces
If your small home has a patio, balcony, or even a tiny backyard, stage it to feel like an extra
“room.”
● Add a bistro set or compact seating. Show how the area can be used for dining or
relaxing.
● Include potted plants or outdoor lighting. These touches make the space feel inviting
and livable.
● Keep it clean and maintained. A neat outdoor space can make the property feel bigger
overall.
Even a small outdoor area adds valuable appeal, especially for buyers craving extra living
space.

8. Freshen Up with Simple Updates
You don’t need a full renovation to make a small home feel fresh and updated.
● Apply a fresh coat of paint. Light, neutral colors instantly make rooms feel larger.
● Replace outdated hardware. New cabinet pulls, doorknobs, and light fixtures can
modernize the home inexpensively.
● Deep clean everything. Sparkling floors, spotless grout, and fresh-smelling rooms go a
long way in making a home feel cared for.
These small, cost-effective updates can dramatically improve a buyer’s perception of the home’s
condition.
Final Touches: Engage the Senses
When staging a small home, don’t forget the little details that make it feel warm and welcoming.
● Add soft textures. Throw pillows, blankets, and cozy rugs create an inviting
atmosphere.
● Use subtle scents. A lightly scented candle or fresh flowers can make the home feel
pleasant without overwhelming buyers.
● Play soft background music. It sets a calming mood during showings.
These final touches help buyers feel emotionally connected to the space—something that can
lead to stronger offers.

The Bottom Line
Staging a small home doesn’t mean trying to make it something it’s not. Instead, it’s about
showcasing its best qualities, creating a sense of openness, and helping buyers see its full
potential. By decluttering, maximizing light, choosing the right furniture, and adding thoughtful
details, you can make even the smallest home feel irresistible.
When buyers walk into a well-staged small home, they shouldn’t think about the square
footage—they should think, “This feels perfect for me.”
Ready to stage your home for a quick, high-impact sale? Start with these hacks—or consult a
local real estate professional for personalized guidance on preparing your space for the market.

🧠✨ We asked ChatGPT to describe timeless home design — and here is what it said: Timeless home design is rooted in simplicity, quality, and balance. It blends classic architecture with clean lines, natural materials, and neutral palettes that never go out of style. Think hardwood floors, white walls, tailored furniture, and spaces that feel both functional and inviting — no matter the decade. 👏 Yep, we agree. And the best part? Timeless design does not mean boring — it means lasting value and effortless style that works whether you are staying for years or planning to sell. 🏡 Thinking about updating your space to feel more timeless? Drop a 🕰️ in the comments or DM for design tips that add both beauty and resale appeal. #TimelessDesign #ChatGPTApproved #HomeStylingTips #DesignThatLasts #RealEstateExpert

Overall Market Update –

5 Realities for Sellers Now Over the past few years, most of the US has been in a strong seller’s market. Historically low interest rates coupled with rising incomes resulted in buyers who were ready and able to buy a new home. It was a crazy time when sellers needed to do little more than put a sign in the yard to attract multiple offers. However, the post-Covid housing market is quite different. The uncertainty in the economy has slowed the pace and rising interest rates have caused buyers to reconsider their purchase, and the amount they are willing to pay. As a result, sellers must go back to the tried-and-true methods of selling a home, debunking the myths of the past few years. 5 “New” Realities for Sellers 1. Price the Home Realistically –Now sellers must be more careful and price the home realistically to avoid losing the precious early days of a listing when buyer’s interest is highest. 2. Make Repairs – Buyers have more choices now and they will be more careful about buying a home that needs a lot of work. 3. Consider Making Concessions – Buyers often ask for reasonable concessions; sellers should weigh the offer before rejecting. 4. Staging is Back – Make sure the home is show-ready and sellers may consider some simple staging to make the home more appealing to buyers. 5. Be Prepared to Wait – The pace has slowed. In a “normal” market, most homes take 30-45 days to enter escrow. Finally, sellers should pay attention to their local market and determine the right time to list. Balance has returned to the housing market. Sellers and Buyers must adjust their thinking back to the "old" concepts to be successful.

Should You Buy Down Your Mortgage Interest Rate?

Rising interest rates can be a major concern if you’re shopping for a new

home. A higher rate reduces your buying power and increases the home

cost thousands of dollars over the course of the loan. One option to avoid

this is to “buy down” your loan rate. This allows you to purchase your home

at a more attractive rate.

A rate buydown is when you pay an upfront fee in exchange for a lower

interest rate. This increases your closing costs and for every 1% of the

purchase price you pay in points, your mortgage interest rate is reduced.

Buying a lower interest rate may be a good strategy for a home you intend

to keep for a long time, thus making up the difference over the life of the

loan.

There are a couple options for a rate buydown. The first is a simple

payment of increased closing costs up front in exchange for a lower

interest rate. The buydown lasts for as long as you have the loan and is

requested by the buyer.

The second is a temporary buydown often initiated by a homebuilder or

lender to incentivize a purchase. In this case, the buydown is for a set

period, two or three years, and then the rate will return to the higher rate if

the borrower does not refinance. This strategy is a good one for a starter

home or if one believes the interest rates will be lower in a few years.

Utilizing a buydown as part of your loan origination can be a smart way to

save money and maximize your purchasing power. It’s important to

recognize the breakeven point, however, so that you know when you have

started gaining money on the plan.

Signs You Have Too Many Houseplants

A somewhat unexpected trend this past year has been an increased interest in owning houseplants. Decades ago, our parents’ homes were filled with pots of ferns, flowers, and even trees. This décor element is back! No longer are plants relegated to the herb pot in the kitchen. As we strive to use more natural décor products, homes are once again filled with living design features. But have you gone too far?

10 Signs You Have Too Many Houseplants (If that is really a thing)

1. You live in a jungle – Boho designs often include plants, but if you’re pushing aside leaves to walk around your home, you’ve gone too far.

2. You panic when you see a dead leaf – Remember, leaves do die to make room for new growth.

3. You have “plant babies” – Do you hire a plant-sitter for weekend trips?

4. Your plants have names – Are you inviting friends to a Zoom birthday for your rhododendron? This could be a problem.

5. You have a plant wall – Have you replaced your bookshelves or family photos with a wall of plants?

6. You talk to your plants – As long as they don’t talk back, you could still be okay.

7. You post throwback plant pictures – Nobody needs to see your monthly plant milestone pictures on social media. “Remember when it was just a little seedling? Aww…”

8. You take plant family selfies – You might have too many plants if every selfie includes your plant family.

9. You have a plant tattoo – Is your favorite plant immortalized on your forearm?

10. You have a favorite plant – Enough said, you have too many plants. It’s good to “go green”; houseplants can purify our air, improve our mood, and bring a taste of the outdoors inside. But if your home looks like it needs trimming—or mowing—you may have too many houseplants.