National news and local views for the week ending Friday, March 1, 2024

National Real Estate News

How close is close enough?

The Fed's target for inflation is 2% on the "core" PCE (Private Consumption Expenditures). At its peak in mid-2022, "core" PCE was running at 5.6% YoY. We've come a long way already. In January 2024, "core" PCE eased to 2.8% YoY (from 2.9% in Dec 2023). And if you annualized the last 8 months, we're running at a 2.2% pace! [BEA] How close do we need to get to 2% before the Fed starts to cut rates?

Four crazy years

Now that we’ve got the Case-Shiller home price data for December 2023, we can zoom out and remind ourselves just how enormous the home price movements have been since the end of 2019. Over the last four years, Case-Shiller's national home price index rose an incredible 47%. And over the last 35 years, the index climbed roughly 5% per year. Talk about a winning record! [S&P Global DJI]

Still above 7%

Average 30-yr mortgage rates stayed above 7% for the third-straight week, and higher rates are already dampening transaction activity. After jumping 9.4% month-over-month in Dec 2023, pending sales (signed contracts) backtracked 4.9% MoM in January 2024. [National Association of Realtors] This suggests that existing home sales for February will drop below 4 million units (annualized) again.

Local Market Trends

As of Friday, March 1, 2024

Area	Median Price	Active Listings	New Listings - 5 days	Median Days on Market
Lodi, CA	$632,687 0.1%	16 -0.7%	2	39 -0.3%

Local Market Trends (/) from Jan. to Mar. 2024.

Overall Market Update –

5 Realities for Sellers Now Over the past few years, most of the US has been in a strong seller’s market. Historically low interest rates coupled with rising incomes resulted in buyers who were ready and able to buy a new home. It was a crazy time when sellers needed to do little more than put a sign in the yard to attract multiple offers. However, the post-Covid housing market is quite different. The uncertainty in the economy has slowed the pace and rising interest rates have caused buyers to reconsider their purchase, and the amount they are willing to pay. As a result, sellers must go back to the tried-and-true methods of selling a home, debunking the myths of the past few years. 5 “New” Realities for Sellers 1. Price the Home Realistically –Now sellers must be more careful and price the home realistically to avoid losing the precious early days of a listing when buyer’s interest is highest. 2. Make Repairs – Buyers have more choices now and they will be more careful about buying a home that needs a lot of work. 3. Consider Making Concessions – Buyers often ask for reasonable concessions; sellers should weigh the offer before rejecting. 4. Staging is Back – Make sure the home is show-ready and sellers may consider some simple staging to make the home more appealing to buyers. 5. Be Prepared to Wait – The pace has slowed. In a “normal” market, most homes take 30-45 days to enter escrow. Finally, sellers should pay attention to their local market and determine the right time to list. Balance has returned to the housing market. Sellers and Buyers must adjust their thinking back to the "old" concepts to be successful.

Should You Buy Down Your Mortgage Interest Rate?

Rising interest rates can be a major concern if you’re shopping for a new

home. A higher rate reduces your buying power and increases the home

cost thousands of dollars over the course of the loan. One option to avoid

this is to “buy down” your loan rate. This allows you to purchase your home

at a more attractive rate.

A rate buydown is when you pay an upfront fee in exchange for a lower

interest rate. This increases your closing costs and for every 1% of the

purchase price you pay in points, your mortgage interest rate is reduced.

Buying a lower interest rate may be a good strategy for a home you intend

to keep for a long time, thus making up the difference over the life of the

loan.

There are a couple options for a rate buydown. The first is a simple

payment of increased closing costs up front in exchange for a lower

interest rate. The buydown lasts for as long as you have the loan and is

requested by the buyer.

The second is a temporary buydown often initiated by a homebuilder or

lender to incentivize a purchase. In this case, the buydown is for a set

period, two or three years, and then the rate will return to the higher rate if

the borrower does not refinance. This strategy is a good one for a starter

home or if one believes the interest rates will be lower in a few years.

Utilizing a buydown as part of your loan origination can be a smart way to

save money and maximize your purchasing power. It’s important to

recognize the breakeven point, however, so that you know when you have

started gaining money on the plan.

Signs You Have Too Many Houseplants

A somewhat unexpected trend this past year has been an increased interest in owning houseplants. Decades ago, our parents’ homes were filled with pots of ferns, flowers, and even trees. This décor element is back! No longer are plants relegated to the herb pot in the kitchen. As we strive to use more natural décor products, homes are once again filled with living design features. But have you gone too far?

10 Signs You Have Too Many Houseplants (If that is really a thing)

1. You live in a jungle – Boho designs often include plants, but if you’re pushing aside leaves to walk around your home, you’ve gone too far.

2. You panic when you see a dead leaf – Remember, leaves do die to make room for new growth.

3. You have “plant babies” – Do you hire a plant-sitter for weekend trips?

4. Your plants have names – Are you inviting friends to a Zoom birthday for your rhododendron? This could be a problem.

5. You have a plant wall – Have you replaced your bookshelves or family photos with a wall of plants?

6. You talk to your plants – As long as they don’t talk back, you could still be okay.

7. You post throwback plant pictures – Nobody needs to see your monthly plant milestone pictures on social media. “Remember when it was just a little seedling? Aww…”

8. You take plant family selfies – You might have too many plants if every selfie includes your plant family.

9. You have a plant tattoo – Is your favorite plant immortalized on your forearm?

10. You have a favorite plant – Enough said, you have too many plants. It’s good to “go green”; houseplants can purify our air, improve our mood, and bring a taste of the outdoors inside. But if your home looks like it needs trimming—or mowing—you may have too many houseplants.